Sunday, October 01, 2006

Of uncertainty of understanding uncertainty

Initially I thought it was certain that understanding uncertainty (GEM2900) is an easy module to take. Then the very thought that it was certainly too easy sent an uneasy feeling that make my ball shrinks as that means the probability of everyone else doing well is sufficently high to assume a negatively skewed normal distribution, shifting the peak to the right side of the bell curve, making it a very competitive module and difficult to score well. Next came the S/Uing period, where I realised my understanding of uncertainty was not as certain as i initially thought, so the uncertainty of whether I should S/U this module became overwhelming. Yet, I was quite certain this would be an easy & slack module and S/Uing it would be such a waste. Then again, although finding a module easy do have some association with the grades one would get, there is not enough evidence to assume causation as there might be a lurking variable influencing the relation. Thus, the uncertainty continues to sway my decision. After giving some thoughts, I am of the opinion that I am certainly thinking too much and the conclusion of this uncertainty is the certainty that I will not S/U understanding uncertainty.

Damn, understanding uncertainty indeed..

5 comments:

Don_Jerome said...

dude...u need to relac...haha....

tstar said...

Sounds like you learnt something from the module already.

cheahchuwen said...

walao, reading that was a torture.

Pandemonium said...

cheahchuwen:

Oh c'mon, is it that tough? Well, you've just gotta rip away those "certainty" and "uncertainty" and similar variants and cut away some of the words, and all will be clear!

Why, I've even summarised it into three sentences!

Initially I thought my ball shrinks to a negatively skewed curve. I was quite certain this would slack and sway. The conclusion of this is that I will not S/U uncertainty.

Currytan said...

Pandy:
What the.... dun mess around with my balls hor... it still obeys the central limit theorem, ie symmetrical, and not skewed, slacked or swayed like what you said! Heh.